ONS revises UK migration estimates using new administrative data
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has updated the UK’s long-term international migration estimates, introducing new methodologies based on administrative data from the Department for Work and Pensions’ Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID) and the Home Office’s Borders and Immigration (HOBI) system. These replace the long-used International Passenger Survey, which the ONS says had been stretched beyond its original purpose. The revisions show that net migration peaked earlier and higher than previously estimated—at 944,000 in the year ending March 2023—before falling to 345,000 in December 2024. The updated methods have led to downward revisions in British nationals’ net migration, now estimated at –114,000, and upward adjustments in EU+ estimates, reflecting improved accuracy from visa and travel data. The changes mark a major step in modernising UK migration statistics, ensuring more robust and timely measurement of immigration and emigration trends.