UKICE analysis estimates Brexit’s impact on foreign-born workforce composition
UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) has published analysis estimating the impact of Brexit on the UK’s foreign-born workforce using a synthetic difference-in-differences methodology, comparing actual outcomes with a counterfactual scenario in which the UK remained in the EU. The study, authored by Jonathan Portes and John Springford, estimates that Brexit reduced the number of EU-born employees in the UK by approximately 785,000 by 2024 (equivalent to 2.6% of the total workforce), while increasing the number of non-EU employees by around 992,000. Overall, the analysis suggests a net increase of approximately 207,000 non-UK-born employees in 2024, representing 0.6% of the total workforce. The study draws on HMRC data on non-national employees in the UK and Eurostat data on foreign-born employees in EU-15 and EEA countries. It treats June 2016 as the intervention point for EU workers, reflecting political and economic uncertainty and sterling depreciation, and January 2021 as the relevant break point for non-EU workers following the introduction of the new immigration system. The research concludes that, while Brexit substantially altered the composition of migration flows and re-established formal control over their structure, it did not materially affect the underlying balance between labour demand, demographic pressures and political constraints.