UKICE analysis predicts economic and political consequences of immigration rule changes
UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) has published an analysis by James Bowes forecasting a notable decline in net migration to the UK. Estimates for net migration decline in 2026 range between 70,000 and 170,000, compared to 431,000 in 2024 and 860,000 in 2023. Bowes attributes the projected decrease to recent policy changes, including higher salary thresholds, restrictions on dependants for care workers and master’s students, and revised skill and language requirements for work visas.