UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) has published a blog by the Director of Research at British Future, Dr Heather Rolfe, examining public attitudes towards migration for work and economic growth. Drawing on recent migration statistics and findings from British Future’s Immigration Tracker survey, the blog notes that net migration for work has been declining since 2024, with skilled worker visa applications significantly below their 2023 peak. Rolfe argues that this trend is likely to continue unless the government relaxes visa requirements and reduces costs for employers. While a majority of the public continue to favour lower overall immigration, the survey finds broadly positive attitudes towards migrant workers, with most respondents supporting maintaining or increasing migrant numbers in occupations including healthcare, engineering, education, agriculture and information technology.

Professor Jonathan Portes, Senior Fellow at UK in a changing Europe (UKICE), has written a blog for UKICE which analyses the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) migration statistics which indicate a significant decline in net migration over the past 18 months. The blog notes that the ONS’ reliance on unreliable survey data—particularly regarding the number of Britons leaving the country—has led to a previous overestimation of net migration. He also addresses the implications of the recently published Immigration White Paper, which envisions further restrictions that are projected to reduce net migration by approximately 100,000 per year. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts, these measures could negatively impact employment while increasing the fiscal deficit by an estimated £7bn annually.

UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) has published a blog by Catherine Barnard, Fiona Costello and Ali Ahmadi examining the claim that stricter UK asylum policies will deter asylum seekers. The blog argues that the evidence does not support a simple ‘pull factor’ model and that asylum policy generosity plays a limited role in destination choice. Instead, the authors highlight social networks as the strongest pull factor, with research showing that asylum seekers are more likely to apply in countries where they have family, friends or established diaspora communities. They note that restrictive welfare policies, employment bans and longer routes to settlement have only a modest or inconsistent impact on asylum flows.

A blog authored by Jannike Wachowiak, Research Associate at UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE), argues that while the tone adopted by UK government ministers has softened on the question of youth mobility, deep structural divergences between the UK and the EU risk turning the issue into a negotiation breaking point. The blog observes a marked rhetorical shift from UK ministers. Once dismissive, they now speak of youth mobility in aspirational terms, describing participants in the scheme as potential contributors to Britain’s soft power. However, it emphasises that this change of language does not mean that underlying disagreements have been resolved. Among the most contested issues are the number of entrants under the scheme, the costs for visas and public services (including the NHS surcharge), and the treatment of EU nationals with respect to university tuition fees.

Professor Catherine Barnard and Fiona Costello have written an analysis for UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) on problems with the eVisa rollout. This notes that the  UK government has postponed the 31 December 2024 deadline for transitioning to a fully digital immigration system, following significant issues with the eVisa rollout. Key concerns include widespread lack of awareness among visa holders, complications for certain groups in obtaining eVisas, misunderstandings by employers regarding document expiry, technical glitches preventing access to digital status, and incompatibility with other government systems. In response, the Home Office has implemented interim measures, including allowing airlines to accept expired Biometric Residence Permits (BRP) until March 2025 and establishing a dedicated helpline for verification. The analysis gives various case studies and states a concern that the Home Office has not learned lessons from the EU Settlement Scheme.

UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) has published a blog by Ali Ahmadi, Catherine Barnard and Fiona Costello examining the effectiveness of the UK’s restrictions on asylum seekers’ right to work. It argues the policy does not deter migration but increases public costs, risks exploitation of asylum seekers and harms wellbeing and integration.

Kathryn Cassidy, Senior Fellow at UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE), has written a blog which highlights what she terms is the uncertain future for 4.3 million displaced Ukrainians under the EU’s Temporary Protection Directive and the 218,600 arrivals recorded in the UK under designated Ukraine schemes. The Directive is set to expire in March 2026, while the UK introduced 18‑month visa extensions in February 2025 while simultaneously excluding time spent under these schemes from settlement calculations. Recent UNHCR data reveal a diminishing desire among these displaced individuals to return home, with the proportion falling from 77% in 2023 to 65% in 2024, and 11% now expressing hopelessness.

UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) has published a blog by Vilija Vėlyvytė assessing the contribution of international recruitment to National Health Service (NHS) workforce supply in the post‑Brexit period. The blog argues that overseas recruitment has become an established feature of NHS workforce planning and should not be viewed solely as a short‑term response to staffing pressures. It highlights that internationally trained professionals now make up a substantial proportion of new entrants to the medical and nursing workforce, reflecting wider trends since 2020 in which non‑UK trained clinicians have played a significant role.

UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) has published an analysis, written by Assistant Professor at the University of Warwick, Kirsty Warner.  The analysis examines the ongoing negotiations over a proposed UK-EU youth mobility scheme. The scheme, first proposed by the European Union (EU) in April 2024, would allow citizens aged 18-30 to stay up to four years in the destination country under restricted conditions. The UK government has shown reluctance to engage with the EU-wide proposal, instead preferring bilateral agreements with individual member states. The analysis highlights that the scheme differs from freedom of movement rights as it requires visas and does not grant settlement rights or unrestricted movement across EU member states.

UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) has published a blog by Professor Catherine Barnard examining the legal feasibility and consequences of the UK withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and the 1951 Refugee Convention. Professor Barnard confirms that legal provisions exist for withdrawal from both treaties, the ECHR permits denunciation after five years of membership with six months’ notice, while the Refugee Convention allows withdrawal via notification to the UN Secretary-General, effective after one year. However, she emphasises that such actions would carry significant legal and political ramifications. Exiting the ECHR would isolate the UK internationally, remove external oversight of human rights protections, undermine the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement, and risk breaching the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), which is contingent on continued adherence to human rights standards. Exiting the Refugee Convention may also breach the TCA.

UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) has published a blog by Professor Michaela Benson examining the long-term effects of Brexit on the estimated 1.2 million British citizens residing in the EU, EEA and EFTA states. As many transition from temporary to permanent residence under the Withdrawal Agreement, disparities in national implementation and administrative procedures have created uncertainty and risk of exclusion, particularly for vulnerable individuals. The blog identifies inconsistent registration systems, gaps in support, and difficulties in proving status as key issues, noting that the absence of a unified oversight mechanism, such as the UK's Independent Monitoring Authority for EU nationals, exacerbates the problem. Benson calls for renewed systematic research to better understand the evolving experiences of this population, and draws attention to her own survey, which has a deadline of 11 July 2025.

UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) has published a blog by Catherine Barnard, Senior Fellow, UKICE and Professor of EU Law and Employment Law, University of Cambridge and Fiona Costello, Research Associate, University of Cambridge providing a detailed examination of the ongoing issues faced by some EU nationals navigating the EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) in the UK. Nearly four years on from the June 2021 application deadline, an estimated 80,000 eligible individuals have yet to apply, and almost 250,000 pre‑settled status grants have been made after late applications. The analysis notes the tightening of ‘reasonable grounds’ for late applications since August 2023 and the acute shortage of specialised immigration advice—especially in regions such as the east of England. Moreover, complexities persist in both maintaining EUSS status and upgrading from pre‑settled to settled status, particularly for vulnerable demographics who may lack the necessary documentation. The introduction of a five‑year extension for pre-settled status holders has further compounded confusion regarding eligibility criteria and the impact of absences, while ongoing digital status challenges continue to affect access to rights such as renting and work. Overall, the blog highlights that despite the impressive application numbers, long‑term risks remain for the most vulnerable EU citizens.