UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) has published analysis estimating the impact of Brexit on the UK’s foreign-born workforce using a synthetic difference-in-differences methodology, comparing actual outcomes with a counterfactual scenario in which the UK remained in the EU. The study, authored by Jonathan Portes and John Springford, estimates that Brexit reduced the number of EU-born employees in the UK by approximately 785,000 by 2024 (equivalent to 2.6% of the total workforce), while increasing the number of non-EU employees by around 992,000. Overall, the analysis suggests a net increase of approximately 207,000 non-UK-born employees in 2024, representing 0.6% of the total workforce. The study draws on HMRC data on non-national employees in the UK and Eurostat data on foreign-born employees in EU-15 and EEA countries. It treats June 2016 as the intervention point for EU workers, reflecting political and economic uncertainty and sterling depreciation, and January 2021 as the relevant break point for non-EU workers following the introduction of the new immigration system. The research concludes that, while Brexit substantially altered the composition of migration flows and re-established formal control over their structure, it did not materially affect the underlying balance between labour demand, demographic pressures and political constraints.

UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) has published an analysis, written by Dr Heather Rolfe, Director of Research at British Future, which examines new research from her organisation that suggests that the public holds a more favourable view of international student migration than the government might perceive. The research (done via focus groups) suggests that the government's approach to international student migration, seen through the lens of immigration control, contrasts with much of the public's view of these students as valuable contributors to the economy and university sector, with 49% of the public considering their economic contribution as ‘very positive or positive’. The research also indicates public backing for retaining international graduates, particularly in health professions. These findings contrast with the previous government's 2023 restrictions on student visas and dependants. In response to the financial difficulties in higher education, the research indicates that public favours increasing international student numbers as a potential solution. The analysis calls for a shift in government policy to align more with public sentiment, focusing on how both home and international students can contribute to the UK’s growth and prosperity.

UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) has published an analysis written by Senior Fellow, Professor Jonathan Portes, which examines new data released by Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs (HMRC) indicating that non-EU migration is accelerating job growth in the UK. The new data from December 2024  shows a significant rise in non-EU-origin payrolled employments, up by nearly two million (90%) since pre-pandemic levels, while EU-origin employments decreased by an estimate of 300,000 and the number of UK-origin employments has remained stable.

UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) has published an analysis by James Bowes at Warwick University, which looks at the anticipated dramatic decline in net immigration to the UK in 2024. Despite unusually high net immigration in 2022 and 2023, the predicted totals for 2024 will be a significant reduction from the previous two years. The analysis highlights that the primary factor driving this fall in UK immigration has been the passing of new, increasingly restrictive, immigration policies.

UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) has published an analysis by James Bowes forecasting a notable decline in net migration to the UK. Estimates for net migration decline in 2026 range between 70,000 and 170,000, compared to 431,000 in 2024 and 860,000 in 2023. Bowes attributes the projected decrease to recent policy changes, including higher salary thresholds, restrictions on dependants for care workers and master’s students, and revised skill and language requirements for work visas.

UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) has published an analysis by Lauren Gilbert warning that the recent collapse in net migration could have adverse economic and fiscal consequences for the UK. Gilbert argues that migrants tend to be net contributors to public finances, with higher average earnings and labour market participation compared to UK-born citizens.

UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) has published a blog by Rob Ford, Senior Fellow, UKICE and Professor of Politics,  University of Manchester arguing that Reform UK’s proposal to abolish indefinite leave to remain (ILR) and require migrants to reapply for visas every five years runs contrary to public opinion and risks a public outcry.  The blog explains that ILR is generally obtained after years of work or family sponsorship, at which point migrants gain the same rights to welfare benefits as UK citizens rights, and it is these rights Reform UK seeks to restrict. The blog asserts that Reform UK’s proposed exclusion of migrants from ILR and welfare benefits would be an unpopular policy. In support of this, Ford points to NatCen panel data from early 2024 which found that 84% of respondents supported giving tax-paying migrants equal welfare access within five years, with 65% favouring an even shorter three-year period and only 3% supporting permanent exclusion. The blog also highlights a survey by British Social Attitudes which compares 2013 and 2024 views on qualification periods for welfare access. The survey results show an increase in support of a qualification period of five years or less for migrants from 82% in 2013 to 84% in 2024.  The data provided, Ford argues, shows that despite over a decade of campaigning for a stricter migration policy, public opinion on access to welfare benefits for settled migrants remains consistent. Ford notes that while no polling exists on revoking rights already granted, Reform UK’s proposal to end ILR and revoke the welfare and security rights of settled migrants would likely be even more unpopular. Ford concludes that public opinion consistently values migrants’ economic contributions and supports fair access once settlement conditions are met.

UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) has published a blog by Ali Ahmadi, Catherine Barnard and Fiona Costello which looks at government plans to revoke the statutory duty to provide support to destitute asylum seekers from June 2026. Under the Asylum Seekers (Reception Conditions) Regulations 2005, SI 2005/7, the Home Office has a statutory duty to provide accommodation and financial help to destitute asylum seekers, but this will revert to discretionary power under the Immigration and Asylum Act 1999. The change, part of the Home Secretary's Restoring Order and Control Policy, aims to make support conditional and reserved for those who ‘play by our rules’, with support denied to those who work illegally, have the right to work, have ability to support themselves or break the law. The analysis notes that approximately 107,000 asylum seekers currently receive support, with about 8,500 having  work rights on the basis of holding Immigration Act 1971, s 3C leave further to a previous visa which allowed them to work, and around 21,000 potentially having work rights due to waiting over 12 months for asylum decisions. The researchers conclude the policy shift will probably not significantly reduce costs or deter new arrivals but may push more asylum seekers into destitution and illegal work.

UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) has published a blog by the Director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, Dr Madeleine Sumption, examining the objectives of immigration policy and the associated trade-offs. The blog identifies three areas where competing objectives arise: (1) conflicts between economic and humanitarian goals; (2) the limitations of immigration policy as a mechanism for addressing social and cultural impacts and (3) differing concepts of fairness in enforcement. Sumption notes that skilled work migration generally benefits public finances, whereas humanitarian migration is more likely to involve public expenditure, creating policy trade-offs for governments. The blog also observes that policymakers find it easier to select migrants based on economic criteria than on values or attitudes, as attempts to assess the latter are often imprecise. In relation to enforcement, it highlights that ethical arguments depend on how issues are framed, with humanitarian perspectives emphasising vulnerability and integrity-based arguments focusing on compliance with the law. The blog concludes that the inherent trade-offs in immigration policy mean that outcomes are more complex than they may initially appear.

UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) has published a blog by Ali Ahmadi, Fiona Costello and Catherine Barnard analysing the EU’s new Pact on Migration and Asylum, which entered into force on 12 June 2026. The blog explains that the Pact replaces key elements of the Dublin system while retaining the principle that the first EU country of entry is generally responsible for examining an asylum claim. It introduces a range of new measures, including a mandatory solidarity mechanism to redistribute asylum seekers across member states, compulsory border screening, accelerated border asylum procedures, expanded detention powers for unsuccessful applicants, and a significantly enlarged Eurodac database containing additional biometric and personal data.

UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) has published a blog by Professor Jonathan Portes which examines the limitations of net migration as a measure of immigration and its role in legitimising racialised political grievances. Portes notes the disparity between net migration and actual immigration flows, emphasising that net migration, which subtracts the number of emigrants from immigrants, can obscure critical differences in the movement of various population groups. The discussion highlights how falling net migration may conceal significant departures of British nationals alongside persistent positive inflows of non-EU+ migrants, thereby shifting the debate away from purely population growth concerns to more nuanced issues regarding demographic shifts.

UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) has published a blog by Ali Ahmadi, Catherine Barnard and Fiona Costello examining a proposal in the government’s Immigration and Asylum Bill to require refugees to make a contribution of approximately £10,000 towards asylum support received while their claims were being determined. The proposed contribution would have to be paid in full before a refugee became eligible for settlement, with the amount charged and the income threshold for repayment to be set at the Home Secretary’s discretion. The blog contends that the proposal lacks operational detail and is unlikely to make a meaningful contribution towards asylum expenditure, while potentially having substantial consequences for refugees’ ability to settle and integrate in the UK.