WTO revises global trade forecasts in October 2025 statistics update
The World Trade Organization (WTO) revised its global merchandise trade growth forecast for 2025 to 2.4%, up from 0.9% in August 2025—while lowering its 2026 projection to 0.5% from 1.8%, according to the October 2025 update. AI-related goods, including semiconductors and telecommunications equipment, drove nearly half of the trade expansion in the first half of 2025, with a 20% year-on-year increase. WTO attributed this growth to the frontloading of North American imports ahead of planned tariff increases and noting that South-South trade grew 8% year-on-year. However, it warned that higher tariffs and ongoing trade policy uncertainty are likely to slow growth in 2026.