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LexisNexis Everything’s Legal is a new occasional blog series which shares an article you may have otherwise missed and which has a bearing on, but isn’t explicitly about, the legal market. We’ll give you the key takeaways or you can add it to your weekend reading list.
Two interesting articles from the FT on the economic outlook as the acute C-19 crisis passes. An FT Big Read (paywall) offering a bullish outlook for GDP growth and an article by John Dizard (paywall) analysing the impact of previous pandemics on wealth and inflation.
Big Read: “This crisis is different”, don’t think of it as 2008 redux, growth is coming
Dizard: In the past, pandemics have led to redistribution and inflation, change is coming
Both pieces argue that the economic outlook is likely brighter than the pessimistic picture most have painted in the last few months. The IMF has called up its GDP forecasts and analysis of historical pandemics suggests that they typically accelerate wages and price inflation.
But the benefits will not be evenly spread. With faster vaccine rollouts and vast stimulus spending, the first world is expected to rebound more quickly. China – which powered the global economy out of the 2008 recession – is flagging. And analysis of historical pandemics finds that high death rates have the effect of splitting the same assets across a smaller pool of people, effectively favouring labour over capital owners.
“It is now becoming clear that the pessimism last autumn about the longer-term outlook for advanced economies was an ‘intellectual failure’. Most economists ‘reached back to the financial crisis and applied the lessons from that period, but this crisis is different’. [Big Read]”
It’s as if the pandemic didn’t happen - by 2024, the IMF estimates most developed economies will have caught back up with their pre-crisis forecasts.
Taken from: www.ft.com 12th April 2021
If you have read something interesting you think we should cover (or would like to write it up yourself) then please let us know at MediaEnquiries@lexisnexis.co.uk
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