Everything’s Legal: The FT on the post-pandemic economic outlook

Everything’s Legal: The FT on the post-pandemic economic outlook

LexisNexis Everything’s Legal is a new occasional blog series which shares an article you may have otherwise missed and which has a bearing on, but isn’t explicitly about, the legal market. We’ll give you the key takeaways or you can add it to your weekend reading list.

 

What have we been reading?

 

Two interesting articles from the FT on the economic outlook as the acute C-19 crisis passes. An FT Big Read (paywall) offering a bullish outlook for GDP growth and an article by John Dizard (paywall) analysing the impact of previous pandemics on wealth and inflation.

 

Summed up in a sentence

 

Big Read: “This crisis is different”, don’t think of it as 2008 redux, growth is coming

Dizard: In the past, pandemics have led to redistribution and inflation, change is coming

 

Give me a bit more

 

Both pieces argue that the economic outlook is likely brighter than the pessimistic picture most have painted in the last few months. The IMF has called up its GDP forecasts and analysis of historical pandemics suggests that they typically accelerate wages and price inflation.

But the benefits will not be evenly spread. With faster vaccine rollouts and vast stimulus spending, the first world is expected to rebound more quickly. China – which powered the global economy out of the 2008 recession – is flagging. And analysis of historical pandemics finds that high death rates have the effect of splitting the same assets across a smaller pool of people, effectively favouring labour over capital owners.

 

Key quote

 

“It is now becoming clear that the pessimism last autumn about the longer-term outlook for advanced economies was an ‘intellectual failure’. Most economists ‘reached back to the financial crisis and applied the lessons from that period, but this crisis is different’. [Big Read]” 

 

Key chart

 

It’s as if the pandemic didn’t happen - by 2024, the IMF estimates most developed economies will have caught back up with their pre-crisis forecasts.


Taken from: www.ft.com 12th April 2021

 

Why does this matter to you?

 

  • The combination of the lower economic impact of the autumn 2020 lockdown; massive government spending; and vaccine rollout is causing an economic boom. Is your firm structured to take advantage of this growth? 
  • Check out Lexis Nexis’ Gross Legal Product Index for an in depth review of the legal areas we predict will recover quickly, and those we do not.

 

Why does this matter to your clients?

 

  • The post-crisis outlook is much stronger for developed economies. If clients have been investing in emerging economies looking for growth since the 2008 recession, now might be the time to pivot.

 

 

If you have read something interesting you think we should cover (or would like to write it up yourself) then please let us know at MediaEnquiries@lexisnexis.co.uk

 

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About the author:
Chris is Head of Segment Marketing at LexisNexis. A former strategy consultant, he writes about data, tech and the legal market – and how thinking like a consultant can help lawyers grow their business.